While they may often be just a flash in the pan, reviewing HR trends and predictions for the year helps to reflect on the year we’ve just experienced and put some guideposts up as to what we might expect in the year ahead.
To me, that’s what makes an excellent prediction piece. While it often seems like everyone’s talking about the same thing year after year (like leadership, for example), it’s how the author puts that idea into context of what the year ahead could bring that makes it useful. Sure, it’s unlikely that your CEO is going to ask you about what great up and coming HR trend you saw on somebody’s listicle, but this process isn’t really for them. It’s to help HR practitioners come together and discuss (or let’s face it, commiserate) about the year ahead.
In researching HR predictions this year, I came across an article by Steven Hunt, an HR Consultant who previously worked for SAP and spent years compiling HR trends data, about interpreting HR predictions articles. I thought his eight lessons on how to sift through HR predictions were quite helpful:
It’s also totally fine to just dive into reading HR predictions pieces because you like them! Maybe there’s a company or thought leader who writes on this topic every year and you find it to be useful, that is great. The trend is definitely here to stay, so whether you’re a casual reader of one or two trends, or you like to analyze them all as I did, whatever makes the trend useful to you is worth it.
As a producer for the HR podcast Toot or Boot, to prepare for our inaugural HR trends episode, I reviewed 15 different prediction sources (that’s over 75 predictions).
The themes that I saw were, in order of prevalence:
The idea behind Toot or Boot is simple: we toot the news we like, and boot the news we don’t. For this rapid-fire episode, our host and creator Stacey Nordwall, joined the hot seat along with our guests, Rebecca Taylor, Co-Founder of SkillCycle, and Erica Spitale, PsyD, VP of People, Culture, and Equity at POGO.
On the show, which you can listen to on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, we discussed one prediction per theme (there was some crossover, a lot of AI!) and I also reviewed common predictions for each theme.
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On the show, we discussed the prediction that, “Internal processes get an AI makeover” from Fresia Jackson and Heather Walker of Culture Amp. What I loved about their work is that all of their predictions are based on historical Culture Amp data. They predict that, “While many employees already use Large Language Model tools independently to streamline their personal workflows (perhaps secretly), organizations will begin introducing AI tools designed for intentional internal use. Unlike public-facing models that train on every input you feed it and risk security of proprietary information, internal Gen AI models are designed specifically for ensuring data privacy.”
The vote on this one was split, with Stacey giving it a Boot and Rebecca and Erica sending up a Toot.
Rebecca shared, “I do think that there's going to be more processes internally that are going to be starting to transition to using AI more to help them happen in a faster way or an easier way. And so I try to think about things in terms of what's the next best step? I don't think by the end of the year, every single internal process is going to be completely run by AI and no one has to ever do anything. But I do think that we're going to start to really take steps now that people have a better understanding of what they can do with generative AI to use it in smaller pieces that do help them learn it for what the next best, the next step of implementation might be more broadly.”
Stacey’s boot of this trend came from a place of skepticism that AI is the answer in this scenario, and for questioning the intentions of those building AI tools. She says, “It's hard for me to then think about this prediction happening where it's very much rooted in ethics and safety and data privacy and everything that I've seen. It's hard for me to believe that that exists on a broad scale. Not to say that there aren't companies that are building that way.”
This prediction also has different implications for smaller businesses versus enterprises, with smaller businesses often being able to adapt and use AI more easily, whereas enterprises may face more layers of approval for use. For example, Rebecca shared that through SkillCycle, “We work with enterprise companies that we had to partner really closely with them on all types of technical due diligence for us to even make this feature available to them.”
74% of HR leaders cite RTO mandates as sources of conflict.
Nathan Chung, a multi-award winning Autistic Cybersecurity Leader, predicts that this year we will see, “More RTO mandates and the decimation of remote jobs will continue…This will happen despite research studies showing the benefits of remote work. Many workers with disabilities need remote jobs in order to survive.”
And in direct contrast, the folks at HiBob think that RTO mandates will decrease, even while admitting that many large companies have already forced the issue. They say, “The fact of the matter is many companies are struggling to find new ways to encourage their people to return to the office. Despite mandates and even the threat of layoffs, today’s professionals continue to prioritize flexibility and work-life balance over a full-time return to on-site work.” So it feels like more of a hopeful take that companies will come to their senses and stop forcing employees back to the office.
Whose prediction will win out? I certainly hope RTO mandates will go away. I agree with longtime People Analytics Leader, David Green, that, “There’s still too much focus on where people work rather than how work gets done.”
Personally, I do hope that this is the year that leadership actually leads. On Toot or Boot, our guests were taking each prediction at face value, and this one, “Leadership That Actually Leads” was booted across the board. The broadness of the prediction made it seem like it didn’t really stand for anything from the point of view of our panel.
The reason I chose it for discussion is because it shows that sometimes there are things that come up on these HR trends and predictions constantly because they're either so hard, they're not fixed or because they mean so many different things to different people. And frankly, no one's leadership predictions across the board were very specific, but they were there.
Rebecca provides some context on why leadership is such a tricky topic to get right in the workplace. She says, “Leaders have been struggling to lead, not because they don't want to and not because they don't care, but because they're strapped for resources. Everybody's trying to do more with less. It's not about leaders being better leaders, it's about companies building better infrastructures for people to step into true leadership roles and giving those resources, those skills and those abilities.”
When it comes to AI powering leadership, one contributor for a Forbes predictions compilation says that, “By 2025, AI-powered decision support will transform leadership. To prepare, leaders must upskill teams to blend AI’s predictive accuracy with human strategic thinking.” Just exactly how AI will impact leadership is something only time will tell this year.
The trend we discussed within this category during our episode was from Chief People Officer Bill Brown, who wrote, “Employee Experience is now a top priority. Companies that focus on wellbeing see significantly better retention and higher productivity. But mental health support needs to go beyond generic wellness programs. So—what's your strategy? A recent client started offering subsidized mental health support beyond just their employees, extending it to families. The result? Higher engagement, stronger loyalty, and a workforce that feels seen.”
Across the board, toots were given, but with hesitancy. This particular prediction brought up a lot of discussion about what mental health actually means and what can happen when the workplace gets involved with it.
As Stacey shared, “Part of it's also, what are you trying to solve here? Because if at an org-wide level you're trying to improve folks' mental health, giving everyone more therapy may not be the best way to do that, or more options for more types of mental health care. It might be that you need to look at your programs and policies and that's going to have a much broader impact and a much more substantive impact.” In fact, McKinsey estimates that investing in holistic employee health could generate between $3.7 trillion and $11.7 trillion in global economic value.
But all in all, the support for this prediction comes from the feeling that it is addressing an important need for employees. As Erica shared, “The excitement for me was that this headline at least seems to acknowledge that humans don't live in a vacuum, that they live in an ecosystem that clearly has an impact and that they impact. And so the people they impact may need support too.”
This was the theme that tended to have the most specific predictions for the year ahead, given the change in our country’s administration. Talent Leader Lars Schmidt brought some level of optimism this year, with his prediction that DEI Strategies Will Evolve Amid Backlash, saying, “HR leaders must navigate this complexity with both pragmatism and purpose, ensuring their strategies reflect substance over symbolism.”
It was Nathan Chung, multi-award winning Autistic Cybersecurity Leader, whose predictions on Neurodiversity and Disability Employment for 2025 contained a more sobering outlook on this year. As he says, “With Donald Trump becoming president again in 2025, disability rights and employment might take a hit. Some might call this fear mongering, but I am taking a cybersecurity approach of planning for the worst but hoping for the best. However, I do predict trials and tribulations from what is being proposed and planned by the incoming administration.”
As the year has begun, we’ve unfortunately already seen the impacts of this prediction coming to life, with the layoff of DEIA employees from the federal government, DEI related events being cancelled, and companies rolling back their DEI programs.
And as longtime HR influencer David Green put it, “This is an opportunity for HR to lead the fightback and protect the networks of people engaged in DEI work.”
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Featured on Toot or Boot episode “2025 HR Predictions: Toot-worthy or Boot-worthy?”
Additional reviewed sources